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Analysis: Assad begins to fold under U.S. pressure
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| By , Haaretz Correspondent |
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The verbal missiles cruising in recent days between Washington and Damascus have obscured an even more interesting statement made this week. Iranian President Mohammed Khatami said in public that "Iran won't defend Syria if it comes under attack by the United States," and that "if the U.S. changes its behavior toward Iran, it is possible to consider a change in Iran's policy toward the U.S."
Khatami's statements have a special significance in light of the tensions between the U.S. and Syria, even though they do not have an immediate practical implication.
When Bashar Assad looks around and sees the ruins of Iraq and the Ba'ath party, Syria's rival and sister party, he realizes that the pan-Arabic ideology that continues to guide him and the Syrian Ba'ath party is bereft of any Arab customers. Gulf states, especially Kuwait, are beginning to reconsider their investment policies in Syria. Turkey is busy repairing the rifts with Washington. And there are Khatami's new statements. This is the same Iran that maintained 'positive neutrality' in the war against Iraq and even assisted Iraqi opposition factions.
This web of relations limits Bashar Assad's ability to maneuver and withstand pressure, and he has already shown signs of complying with U.S. demands. Assad will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell if he arrives in Damascus, and Syria has recently announced that it will enable Iraqi figures to enter its territory only on an individual basis, instead of allowing them to enter almost unfettered.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman took the trouble to declare that the request of Faruk Hijazi, the former Iraqi military chief, for sanctuary in Syria, had been turned down. She also clarified that "Syria's relations with Iraq have never been good," and that "Syria will be happy to assist in the rehabilitation of Iraq."
The truth is important, but Syria's need to suddenly declare the opposite of the truth is no less important. According to Lebanese sources, Syria has already ordered stepped up monitoring of its border with Iraq, and it seems that although it won't agree to extradite Iraqis who found sanctuary in its territory, it will allow U.S. investigators to interrogate them.
The U.S. administration is prepared to give Assad a chance to mend his ways, in order to prevent an inevitable collision. Such corrective moves are rarely conducted in public, but rather via confidential agreements and mutual gestures far from the glare of the media spotlight.
It is important for the U.S. administration to redirect Syria to support the new Iraqi government even before it is established, in order to prevent an Iraqi uprising inflamed by Syria or by anyone acting from within its territory. For this purpose, Washington is now raising allegations, some of which have long been gathering dust in the archives of American intelligence services, such as the continued activity of terror organizations in Syria, or the chemical weapons in its possession, together with new arguments such as the safe haven Syria is affording Iraqi public figures.
Syria has already announced that it will not allow inspectors to enter its territory to examine its weapons arsenal, and that it will sign or ratify a convention for preventing the distribution of weapons of mass destruction only in the framework of a plan to remove such weapons from the entire Middle East - first in Israel, then in other Arab states.
Syria promptly submitted a proposal to the UN Security Council to discuss the removal of weapons of mass destruction from the Middle East - a declaratory step that has little practical substance.
Both sides know that Syria is not Iraq. The U.S. is holding a "dialogue" with Syria, as Powell said, and Syria is not 'next on the list' in terms of military action, according to British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw.
Neither is Syria required to undergo a democratization process or immediately sign a peace agreement with Israel. Syria is asked to "behave appropriately" and to toe the line with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states regarding its policy toward Iraq. The rest can be discussed in the conventional diplomatic channels.
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